This week’s Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report has been released. Initial claims dropped to 530,000. This is at the high end of the Bloomberg consensus range of 520k to 530k. For the first time in a long while, last week’s data was not revised upwards. From the report:

In the week ending Oct. 24, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 530,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week’s unrevised figure of 531,000. The 4-week moving average was 526,250, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 532,250.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 4.4 percent for the week ending Oct. 17, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week’s unrevised rate of 4.5 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Oct. 17 was 5,797,000, a decrease of 148,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 5,945,000. The 4-week moving average was 5,960,750, a decrease of 78,750 from the preceding week’s revised average of 6,039,500.

This is mildly good news. On the plus side, any drop in new claims is a step in the right direction. In the minus side, the typical revision number is larger than this change. This isn’t as good as the data from two weeks ago and the trend that was emerging. Any number over 500k is bad. Most important, however, is that the news seems a bit hollow because the unadjusted numbers moved in the wrong direction:

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 492,456 in the week ending Oct. 24, an increase of 32,026 from the previous week. There were 449,389 initial claims in the comparable week in 2008.

The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.8 percent during the week ending Oct. 17, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 4,968,019, an increase of 51,445 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 2.4 percent and the volume was 3,233,118.

We are still close to where we were last year in terms of new claims. Unfortunately, in the absence of an engine for jobs growth, a year of steady new claims numbers at this level would mean increased unemployment. This is a serious problem. Rhetoric has moved from calling for a “jobless recovery” to a “job-loss recovery.” There’s a lot of discussion of establishing a “new normal” with higher unemployment. In other words, there will be no recovery for most Americans.

There is no good or bad news on the unemployment benefits extension. It is in the exact state of limbo as last week. No recovery indeed.

The good / bad lists tell a story. Interpreting the story is an exercise for the reader. It’s pretty easy (easier if you are outside California).

The good list (-1000 or more): WI, NY, PA, IL, OR, AR, NJ, KY, TX, GA, IN, MD, OH, MO, FL, NC, WA, KS, MI

The bad list (+1000 or more): CA

CA (the worst) was +5,774 vs WI (the best) at -5,681. Improvements to the trade and service industries took the top spots in the comments column for the good list.

This report was not bad, but it was not the reversion to the previous trend that I had hoped for. A drop of 1,000 new claims is not a significant change to the seasonally adjusted numbers. Short term outlook is still dominated by the unemployment benefits extension bill. Long term outlook is still dominated by the lack of an engine for jobs growth.

-By crazynutjob.

Read all of crazynutjob’s unemployment report recaps here.