Unemployment: New Claims Down.
The snowstorm that closed down the Eastern Seaboard was not sufficient to delay the release of the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report. Good thing, too, because there’s good news in this week’s report. Initial claims fell to 440,000 while last week’s figure was revised up 3,000. This hit the optimistic edge of the Bloomberg concensus range of 440k to 475k. From the report:
In the week ending Feb. 6, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 440,000, a decrease of 43,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 483,000. The 4-week moving average was 468,500, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week’s revised average of 469,500.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.5 percent for the week ending Jan. 30, unchanged from the prior week’s unrevised rate of 3.5 percent.
The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Jan. 30 was 4,538,000, a decrease of 79,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 4,617,000. The 4-week moving average was 4,603,500, a decrease of 17,750 from the preceding week’s revised average of 4,621,250.
I’m not terribly happy about the upward revisions to prior weeks. It is reflected in the 4-week moving average barely inching down. However, if you look at the graph of initial claims at the St. Louis Fed, this is looking like a V-shaped recovery in employment stability. This is not as good as a V-shaped recovery in employment, but getting below 400k will support jobs growth even in a terrible economy. Note that this isn’t quite an “all clear” signal. Reversals are the norm, but they are usually much smaller than the preceding peak…



I have been through many strange experiences, however this has to be one of the strangest. I am about to have an interview with and extraterrestrial being and I am going to ask him about employment issues on his world? All because Great Britain may become a safe haven for extraterrestrials?
That may sound like an odd and perhaps offensive question to ask now, of all times, when you’re plagued with unpaid bills, holiday presents to buy—and no money to pay for any of it.
Those are the questions one asks oneself when one is out of work for a prolonged period of time and has exhausted his or her contacts and been told there aren’t any job openings in the field or area of expertise—or the former job doesn’t exist anymore. Those are the questions when one does not see any advertisements on the major online job search sites. Those are the questions when one has put his or her best foot forward in a stunning resume of achievements and packaged themselves to the nines, to seemingly no avail. One month leads to another and sometimes builds into years of unemployment. It is frustrating. It feels like one is roaming a desert.