This week’s Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report was the bearer of moderately good news. New claims dropped 5k against last week’s revised number to 382k. Compare this to the Bloomberg consensus range of 378k to 390k. Last week’s number was revised up 2k, so some of the good news is mitigated. From the report:

In the week ending March 19, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 382,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 387,000. The 4-week moving average was 385,250, a decrease of 1,500 from the previous week’s revised average of 386,750.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.0 percent for the week ending March 12, unchanged from the prior week’s unrevised rate of 3.0 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending March 12 was 3,721,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 3,723,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,755,250, a decrease of 28,000 from the preceding week’s revised average of 3,783,250.

The unadjusted data looks encouraging as well:

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The celebration resumes. This week’s Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report brings genuine good news. New unemployment claims came in at 383k, back below the statistically critical 400k point we hit a little over a month ago. The Bloomberg consensus range was 385k to 450k, so this snuck in better than expectations. Last week’s number was revised up 4k. From the report:

In the week ending Feb. 5, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 383,000, a decrease of 36,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 419,000. The 4-week moving average was 415,500, a decrease of 16,000 from the previous week’s revised average of 431,500.

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If we use my rule that three weeks makes a trend, then the trend in new unemployment claims is something to worry about. This week’s Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report was another disappointment, marking three weeks of unwelcome increases. New claims came in at 500k, the worst since the November 14th reading, when the bad numbers were falling. Last week was revised up 4k. This was outside of the Bloomberg consensus range of 465k to 495k. From the report:

In the week ending Aug. 14, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 500,000, an increase of 12,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 488,000. The 4-week moving average was 482,500, an increase of 8,000 from the previous week’s revised average of 474,500.

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This week’s Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report is similar to last week’s. New claims fell fast on an adjusted basis, but grew fast on an unadjusted basis. There is one critical difference: the adjusted number of new claims has hit a new low since the peak. That’s right, actual progress for the first time in months. The new claims number dropped to 429k while last week’s number was revised up 4k. New claims were at the low end of the Bloomberg consensus range of 420k to 460k, though this is widely being reported as a solid trouncing of expectations (another similarity to last week). From the report:

In the week ending July 10, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 429,000, a decrease of 29,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 458,000. The 4-week moving average was 455,250, a decrease of 11,750 from the previous week’s revised average of 467,000.

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