We see some slight improvement in the weekly unemployment indicator. I would have liked to have seen a bigger move, as we have entered a period with no obvious short term trend. This week’s Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report has been released. New claims dropped to 462,000. Last week’s…
This was a bit of critical news that worked out as needed. The Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report has been released. Last week I stated that we would need one more bad data point before admitting that another trend up in new claims was happening. This was largely because of the…
-By crazynutjob.
Read all of crazynutjob’s unemployment report recaps here.
Unemployment: Initial Claims Jump.
When I first saw the headline number, I thought “Someone tell me that this is a consequence of the weather and not a sign that the labor market is starting to crumble again.” Spoiler: it’s the seasonal adjustment. The Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report has been released. Initial claims grew to 496,000 while last week’s figure was revised up 1,000. This was was actually inside the Bloomberg consensus range of 445k to 500k. From the report:
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Unemployment: New Claims Rise.
Some less-than-stellar news on the unemployment front. The Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report has been released. Initial claims grew to 473,000 while last week’s figure was revised up 2,000. This was above the Bloomberg concensus range of 410k to 450k. Just to provide some positive spin: the 4-week moving average still fell, though not to where it was the second week of January (440k, the best point since August 2008). From the report:
In the week ending Feb. 13, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 473,000, an increase of 31,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 442,000. The 4-week moving average was 467,500, a decrease of 1,500 from the previous week’s revised average of 469,000.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.5 percent for the week ending Feb. 6, unchanged from the prior week’s unrevised rate of 3.5 percent.
The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Feb. 6 was 4,563,000, unchanged from the preceding week’s revised level of 4,563,000. The 4-week moving average was 4,585,750, a decrease of 24,000 from the preceding week’s revised average of 4,609,750.
I’m sticking with my story: New claims must fall below 400k. In the last recession, new claims only rose as high as 517k. They recovered a bit, but hovered around the 400k point. The recovery in jobs didn’t begin until the recession was well over, after the new claims number managed to move convincingly below 400k. Census hiring may provide some temporary relief, but don’t expect permanent, structural improvements until we see employment volatility come down. I’ll throw in the painful reminder that current estimates are that we need 125,000 new jobs a month just to keep up with the population…
Unemployment: New Claims Down.
The snowstorm that closed down the Eastern Seaboard was not sufficient to delay the release of the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report. Good thing, too, because there’s good news in this week’s report. Initial claims fell to 440,000 while last week’s figure was revised up 3,000. This hit the optimistic edge of the Bloomberg concensus range of 440k to 475k. From the report:
In the week ending Feb. 6, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 440,000, a decrease of 43,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 483,000. The 4-week moving average was 468,500, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week’s revised average of 469,500.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.5 percent for the week ending Jan. 30, unchanged from the prior week’s unrevised rate of 3.5 percent.
The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Jan. 30 was 4,538,000, a decrease of 79,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 4,617,000. The 4-week moving average was 4,603,500, a decrease of 17,750 from the preceding week’s revised average of 4,621,250.
I’m not terribly happy about the upward revisions to prior weeks. It is reflected in the 4-week moving average barely inching down. However, if you look at the graph of initial claims at the St. Louis Fed, this is looking like a V-shaped recovery in employment stability. This is not as good as a V-shaped recovery in employment, but getting below 400k will support jobs growth even in a terrible economy. Note that this isn’t quite an “all clear” signal. Reversals are the norm, but they are usually much smaller than the preceding peak…
