The celebration resumes. This week’s Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report brings genuine good news. New unemployment claims came in at 383k, back below the statistically critical 400k point we hit a little over a month ago. The Bloomberg consensus range was 385k to 450k, so this snuck in better than expectations. Last week’s number was revised up 4k. From the report:

In the week ending Feb. 5, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 383,000, a decrease of 36,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 419,000. The 4-week moving average was 415,500, a decrease of 16,000 from the previous week’s revised average of 431,500.

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The unemployment rate fell in January to 9% according to the Employment Situation Report. However, only 36,000 jobs were added on a seasonally adjusted basis, significantly below Bernanke’s estimate of 100,000 jobs needed for stability (and therefore an even bigger gap from Reich’s estimate). This is also below the expectations illustrated by the Bloomberg consensus range of 55,000 to 200,000.

600,000 people are no longer unemployed, but the labor force was unchanged. That’s an interesting gap between the household survey (determines the unemployment rate) and the establishment survey (determines number of jobs added). Typically, changes in the labor force help explain the gap. This report is a bit unusual, though, and offers us a substantial population revision (Table C). This revision does not cause the BLS to change their official data for prior months, but they detail what the impacts would have been. The BLS points out that this policy has the unfortunate side effect of making historical comparisons less useful.

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(Source: crazynutjob)

The volatility in new unemployment claims continues. This week’s Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report bring us down to 415k. Last week’s number was revised up 3k. The Bloomberg consensus range was 354k to 434k, which highlights the impact of recent volatility on analyst claims more than it indicates increased optimism. From the report:

In the week ending Jan. 29, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 415,000, a decrease of 42,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 457,000. The 4-week moving average was 430,500, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week’s revised average of 429,500.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.1 percent for the week ending Jan. 22, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week’s unrevised rate of 3.2 percent.

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Hope and confusion are two appropriate reactions to this week’s Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report. In an unusual move, last week’s data was revised down 4k. Including the revision, this week’s drop to 404k seems even more impressive. The Bloomberg consensus range was 397k to 435k, so this move came in at the low end of expectations. From the report:

In the week ending Jan. 15, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 404,000, a decrease of 37,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 441,000. The 4-week moving average was 411,750, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week’s revised average of 415,750.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.1 percent for the week ending Jan. 8, unchanged from the prior week’s unrevised rate of 3.1 percent.

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The party is on pause until further notice. That was the sentiment from this week’s Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report. New unemployment claims came in at 409k. The Bloomberg consensus range was 400k to 415k, so this number was largely expected. Last week’s number was revised up 3k. From the report:

In the week ending Jan. 1, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 409,000, an increase of 18,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 391,000. The 4-week moving average was 410,750, a decrease of 3,500 from the previous week’s revised average of 414,250.

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