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This week’s Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report is remarkably close to last week’s data point, on a seasonally adjusted basis. I graphed the unadjusted and adjusted claims for the last 10 years to highlight the importance and meaning of that statement. Initial claims rose slightly to 434,000. Last week’s number was revised up 1,000. This was toward the low end of the Bloomberg consensus range of 420k to 470k. From the report:
In the week ending Jan. 2, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 434,000, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 433,000. The 4-week moving average was 450,250, a decrease of 10,250 from the previous week’s revised average of 460,500.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.6 percent for the week ending Dec. 26, a decrease of 0.2 percentage point from the prior week’s unrevised rate of 3.8 percent.
The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Dec. 26 was 4,802,000, a decrease of 179,000 from the preceding week’s unrevised level of 4,981,000. The 4-week moving average was 5,005,750, a decrease of 95,250 from the preceding week’s unrevised average of 5,101,000.
I had to start with the disclaimer about this being the seasonally adjusted numbers because the seasonal adjustment is rather important. If you click my above link, you will see a huge seasonal component at the beginning of each year. The underlying trend is still a bit noisy with the adjustment, but it is rather remarkable how separable the “trend” component is from the “seasonal” component. The trend doesn’t appear to be reversing; we still seem to be heading into a more stable employment environment.
If you know someone who has recently been canned, and odds are good that you do, the actual number of new claims is important. That number just shot up:
WISH NUMBER ONE FOR 2010: ECONOMY RESTORATION AND ENOUGH REAL JOBS PAYING LIVABLE WAGES FOR ALL WHO NEED TO EARN A LIVING SO WE CAN END THIS NONSENSE ONCE AND FOR ALL.
WISH NUMBER TWO FOR 2010: NO BENEFITS REDUCTION WHILE EARNING SUPPLEMENTAL SURVIVAL WAGES—UNTIL THE ACQUISITION OF PERMANENT JOBS PAYING LIVABLE WAGES FOR ALL WHO NEED TO EARN A LIVING.
WISH NUMBER THREE FOR 2010: TAX-EXEMPT UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE BENEFITS FOR THE DURATION UNTIL FULL TIME WORK IS ESTABLISHED.
Congress, The Senate and The President ought to pass a law: You should be able to supplement your unemployment insurance benefits income with a survival job if you have the chance to do so, without penalty of losing any of your benefits.
Un-employment benefits should be paid in full without penalty if people find part time work or sell self-made consumer goods on the side while receiving unemployment benefits. I feel it’s unfair to penalize those rendered jobless by taking away benefits, or, as the labor folks say, “budget it in” with your benefits, accordingly, against what you earn to supplement your support, from whatever temporary or part time job you may find to try and sustain yourself. After all, senior citizens are allowed to work and collect government benefits called “social security” at the same time after a certain age without penalty.
Why should the laid off, formerly working slob be punished?
This week’s Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report has been released. Initial claims dropped to 512,000. This soundly beat the Bloomberg consensus range of 515k to 525k. Last week’s number was revised up 2,000 to 532,000. From the report:
In the week ending Oct. 31, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 512,000, a decrease of 20,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 532,000. The 4-week moving average was 523,750, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week’s revised average of 526,750.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 4.4 percent for the week ending Oct. 24, unchanged from the prior week’s unrevised rate of 4.4 percent.
The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Oct. 24 was 5,749,000, a decrease of 68,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 5,817,000. The 4-week moving average was 5,886,250, a decrease of 79,500 from the preceding week’s revised average of 5,965,750.
Once again, we approach the 500k barrier. Fingers are crossed. Please note that the unadjusted numbers are also moving in the good direction:
