New unemployment claims nudged up this week. The Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report put the number at 427k. Last week came in at 422k before its upward revision of +4k, so this wasn’t quite as flat as it first appears. The Bloomberg consensus range was predicting a slight drop to between 415k to 420k, so this a bit of a disappointment. From the report:

In the week ending June 4, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 427,000, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 426,000. The 4-week moving average was 424,000, a decrease of 2,750 from the previous week’s revised average of 426,750.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.9 percent for the week ending May 28, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week’s unrevised rate of 3.0 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending May 28 was 3,676,000, a decrease of 71,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 3,747,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,719,250, a decrease of 29,000 from the preceding week’s revised average of 3,748,250.

If there’s any good news this week, it comes from the unadjusted numbers. Since this corresponds to actual people instead of trend data, it’s nice to know that almost 17k fewer people filed for new unemployment claims:

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This week’s Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report was the bearer of moderately good news. New claims dropped 5k against last week’s revised number to 382k. Compare this to the Bloomberg consensus range of 378k to 390k. Last week’s number was revised up 2k, so some of the good news is mitigated. From the report:

In the week ending March 19, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 382,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 387,000. The 4-week moving average was 385,250, a decrease of 1,500 from the previous week’s revised average of 386,750.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.0 percent for the week ending March 12, unchanged from the prior week’s unrevised rate of 3.0 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending March 12 was 3,721,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 3,723,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,755,250, a decrease of 28,000 from the preceding week’s revised average of 3,783,250.

The unadjusted data looks encouraging as well:

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crazynutjob:

Let’s start with the good news: we’re still below 400k new claims. Now the bad: New claims grew to 397k in this week’s Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report. The Bloomberg consensus range was 370k to 400k, so this was right at the high end. Last week’s number was up 3k. From the report:

In the week ending March 5, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 397,000, an increase of 26,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 371,000. The 4-week moving average was 392,250, an increase of 3,000 from the previous week’s revised average of 389,250.

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crazynutjob:

New unemployment claims just hit their lowest since May 2008. The headline number was 368k on a Bloomberg consensus range of 388k to 405k. Last week’s number was revised down 3k. From this week’s report:

In the week ending Feb. 26, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 368,000, a decrease of 20,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 388,000. The 4-week moving average was 388,500, a decrease of 12,750 from the previous week’s revised average of 401,250.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.0 percent for the week ending Feb. 19, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week’s revised rate of 3.1 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Feb.19 was 3,774,000, a decrease of 59,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 3,833,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,863,750, a decrease of 40,500 from the preceding week’s revised average of 3,904,250.

The unadjusted numbers, those that correspond to actual people instead of trends, also look good this week (though are only the best since September):

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 351,076 in the week ending Feb. 26, a decrease of 30,029 from the previous week. There were 471,256 initial claims in the comparable week in 2010.

The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.4 percent during the week ending Feb. 19, a decrease of 0.3 percentage point from the prior week. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 4,325,502, a decrease of 262,110 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 4.3 percent and the volume was 5,597,500.

The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending Feb 12 was 9,236,041.

We anticipated a nice bias toward the good list in this week’s good / bad lists due to an unadjusted -40k reading last week. The bad list was skunked this week.

The good list (-1000 or more): NY, PA, WI, KY, FL, NJ, MI, CA, MO, IN, GA, MA, OH, OK, AL

The bad list (+1000 or more): None

Fewer layoffs in construction received the most credit.

In other news, a tier V unemployment extension bill continues to die after attempts by lawmakers in Washington. At the state level, some new efforts are underway, with varying levels of success (Oregon, Wisconsin).

This was a great report. All eyes will be on tomorrow’s employment situation report, though. Expectations are for +180,000 jobs. This would be a good number. Unfortunately, since last month’s numbers may have been pressed lower by weather, a higher reading for February may be due to some carryover from January. A Gallop poll puts the unadjusted unemployment rate at 10.3%, up from 9.8% in January.